DFS pick'em payout tables

Pick'em is not a sportsbook and its payout tables are not odds. Converting them into a per-leg break-even is the only way to compare them to anything.

Pick'em apps look like a simpler sportsbook: choose more or less on a few player projections, get paid a fixed multiplier if enough of them land. They are not sportsbooks, the multipliers are not odds, and converting them into a per-leg break-even is the only way to compare them to anything.

Why the payout table is the whole product

A sportsbook prices each leg individually. A pick'em platform posts a line at roughly even money and pays a fixed multiplier for the number of legs you get right. All of its fee is in the multiplier, not in the line.

That means two entries with the same legs can demand very different hit rates, purely because of which payout table they are scored against.

The most common mistake in this whole category

Flex and Power are different bets and must be scored against different break-evens. Judging a Flex entry against the Power table — or against a generic 52.38% — makes bad entries look good and good ones look bad. Exact multipliers also vary by platform and change over time, so check the table you are actually playing.

A pick'em leg needs to hit around 56-58% to break even. A sportsbook leg at -110 needs 52.38%. That gap is the price of the format.

Where the value can be

Pick'em lines are drawn from the same projections as sportsbook props, but they sit at a fixed price and move more slowly. Comparing one against the other is the entire method.

1. Find the same player and statistic at a sportsbook.
2. De-vig the sportsbook's two-way price to get a fair probability.
3. Compare that probability against the break-even the pick'em payout table demands.
4. Only entries clearing the table's break-even are worth playing.

A line that is a strong bet at a sportsbook is often a losing entry on a pick'em app, because it has to clear a much higher bar. The two answers disagreeing is normal, not an error.

The other differences worth knowing

• Correlation is usually not allowed between legs from the same game, or is repriced when it is.
• A voided leg — a scratched player — usually reduces the entry to a smaller payout table rather than refunding it.
• Availability varies by state, because these products are regulated differently from sportsbooks in different places.
• Limits are low and accounts do get restricted, the same as at a recreational sportsbook.

None of that makes the format bad. It makes it a format with its own arithmetic, and the arithmetic is the part almost nobody does.

Every pick'em line scored against its own platform's payout table, not a generic one. Open the Pick'em board.

Terms in this lesson

• Pick'em (DFS)
• DFS
• Flex play
• Power play
• Break-even
• Player prop