Promotions are the one place a recreational sportsbook reliably offers a price better than fair. Only some of them, and only if you read the terms.
Promotions are the one place a recreational sportsbook reliably offers a price better than fair. Only some of them, only sometimes, and only if you can read what the offer actually is.
A free bet — often called a bonus bet — pays only the profit. The stake is not returned. A $100 free bet at +200 pays $200, not the $300 a cash bet would.
That single rule changes how to use one. Because you keep only the profit, converting at a longer price retains more of the face value.
| Price | Pays if it wins | Chance | Expected value | Retention |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -300 | $33 | 75% | $25 | 25% |
| +100 | $100 | 50% | $50 | 50% |
| +200 | $200 | 33% | $67 | 67% |
| +400 | $400 | 20% | $80 | 80% |
Longer prices retain more value and win far less often. A $100 free bet used at +400 is worth about $80 in expectation and produces nothing four times out of five. Both halves of that sentence are true at once.
An odds boost raises the price on a specific bet. Unlike a free bet it is real money on a real price — so the question is only whether the boosted number beats fair.
Most boosts fail this test. A boost from -140 to -125 on a market whose fair price is -150 is still a bad bet, wearing a badge that says otherwise. The boosts that pass tend to be on longer prices, where the percentage improvement is largest.
The stake cap (a great price on $5 is worth $5 of edge). The rollover (a bonus needing 10× playthrough at minimum -200 odds is worth a fraction of face). The minimum price (which can make the bonus unusable at the odds where it retains value). And the arbitrage clause — hedging a promotional bet breaches most books' terms and they do withhold on it.
A hedge is a bet on the opposite side that pays you the same whichever way it goes. It converts an uncertain position into a certain, smaller one.
Hedging always costs expected value when the original bet was good. That is not a mistake — buying certainty is a legitimate thing to do with a large open position, and "the maths says ride it" is a poor answer to someone holding a life-changing ticket. Just be clear that it is what you are buying.
Where hedging is unambiguously right is on a bet you never wanted: a promotion that forced a wager you would not otherwise have made. There, hedging is not giving up edge — it is recovering the value of the offer.
What each sportsbook is offering, so you can value it before you opt in. See current book offers.